محاولة أولى للتمرد

بقلم، رمضان سليم

سوف يبقى لقاء الرئيس الفرنسي “ماكرون” مع مستشارة ألمانيا السيدة “ميركل” في بدايات هذه السنة 2019 خطوة أولى مهمة،  ومدخلا عمليا للجهود الأوروبية المبذولة لتعزيز العمل المشترك في إطار  التعاون العسكري والأمني الأوروبي الموحد بعيدا عن السيطرة  الأمريكية أو على الأقل منفصلا عنها، لا سيما إذا أخذنا فى الاعتبار محاولات أوروبا التمهيدية لإنشاء جيش أوروبي بصرف النظر عن تواجد واستمرارية الحلف الأطلسي.

إن أوروبا بكل خلافاتها الداخلية، وبعد خروج بريطانيا تسعى لتكوين جيش أوروبي شبه موحد، إنها بلا شك مسْألة ينظر إليها أصحاب الرأي السياسي المحايد على أنها مجرد مزايدة سياسية، ولعبة انتخابية خاصة بالبرلمان الأوروبي،  ومناوشة مع أمريكا بعد كل تصرفات الرئيس ترامب المفتعلة مع أوروبا سياسيا وعسكريا.

لقد شهدت أوروبا فى تاريخها الحديث على وجه التحديد سلسلة من الحروب والانقسامات والتحالفات المتباينة،  وهذا ما جعل منها قارة بعيدة عن التوحد الكامل إلا فى حدود التعاون الاقتصادي، وهو تعاون مهدد بالتفكك فلا تقارب بين إيطاليا أو إسبانيا مع فرنسا،  وكذلك مع ألمانيا، ولا تفاعل أو انسجام بين اليونان والسويد أو بين هولندا والمجر وغير ذلك من دول أوروبا، وخصوصا الشرقية منها، ولقد ازدادت الانقسامات الأوروبية حدة بعد خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي، وربما سارت دول أخرى على نفس المسار.

فى الآونة الأخيرة وبقيادة كل من ألمانيا وفرنسا، برز التوجه الأوروبي لتأسيس نواة لجيش أوروبي ربما ينفصل لاحقا عن الناتو، ومن المعلوم أن فرنسا لديها سعي سابق للخروج عن الدائرة السياسية الأمريكية، وذلك منذ عهد الجنرال “ديغول”،

أما ألمانيا فهي تنتظر تحررها من القبضة الأمريكية سياسيا وعسكريا بعد ارتفاع رصيدها  الاقتصادي دوليا.

إن الطريقة الأمريكية الجديدة فى التخلي عن الحلفاء، دفعت بعض الدول الأوروبية لسلوك مسلك سياسي يتناقض مع النهج الأمريكي ولو جزئيا،

ولعل العلاقات الإيرانية الأوروبية، هى خير تعبير عن هذا الطرح السياسي، فلقد اعترضت أوروبا بكاملها تقريبا عن انسحاب أمريكا من الاتفاقية الدولية النووية مع إيران،  ولم توافق أوروبا على جملة العقوبات الأمريكية  الجديدة ضد أي شركة أو مؤسسة تتعامل مع إيران، للأن هذا يهدد الشركات الأوروبية نفسها، ونحن نعلم إن شركة رينو الفرنسية للسيارات  قد انسحبت من طهران خوفا من العقوبات الأمريكية.

لقد واجهت أوروبا من خلال ألمانيا فرنسا العقوبات الأمريكية ضد إيران لمصالح لها علاقة بالغاز والنفط أولا،  والأهم بقصد الوقوف ظاهريا ضد أمريكا، وبشىء  من التحفظ رغم ارتفاع أصوات الاحتجاج ضد السياسة الإيرانية فى مشمولها العام.

من جانب آخر  تتصدى أحيانا  أوروبا لبعض الاستفزازات الإيرانية  وأوروبا،  تهدد بفرض عقوبات من نوع مختلف فى حال استمرار إيران فى سياستها العدائية ضد خصومها من المعارضين، الذين يستقرون بأوروبا، وخصوصا فرنسا، وتقول التقارير السياسية بأن الاستخبارات الإيرانية قد لاحقت أكثر من معارض إيراني وحاولت اغتياله، أما الأخطر فهو سلسلة الهجومات الإلكترونية التى اخترقت الأجهزة والنظم والمعلومات فى أوروبا رغم إن بعض المصادر تشكك فى قدرات إيران فى المجالات السيبرانية، ويعتبرون أن روسيا هى المتهمة الأولى فى كل ذلك.

يبقى القول واضحا بمخاوف أوروبا من إيران من ناحية، والحاجة إليها فى التعاملات الاقتصادية من ناجية أخرى، وبالتالي يظهر بوضوح تذبذب  الموقف الأوروبي وعدم وضوحه.

لا يمنع ذلك من القول بأن هناك عدم اتفاق حول إيران من قبل معظم الدول الأوروبية بما فى ذلك استخدام إيران باعتبارها ورقة ناجحة فى الخلاف الأمريكي الأوروبي.

وفى محاولة من لأوروبا لتجاوز نظام سويفت العالمي  للتحويلات المالية، والذى تتحكم فيه أمريكا وضعت مقترحات للعمل تحت الطاولة تفاديا لخسارة للشركات الأوروبية الصغيرة التى لديها مصالح فى التعامل بمساعدة بعض الدول  الأوروبية المعنية بهذا التبادل التجاري.

من ضمن هذه الآراء القول باستخدام المقايضة، ولكن بطريقة أكثر تعقيدا، حيث تنقل الأموال إلى دولة أوروبية محايدة، ومنها إلى إيران، وهذا يعنى المزيد من المضاربات المالية.

رغم أن إيران  تقوم  كل يوم بتطوير أسلحتها البالستية، وتعترف بتمويه وخداع منظمة الطاقة العالمية، إلا أن أوروبا تتعامل مع إيران بازدواجية، وتتساهل معها رغم إدراكها لخطورة الموقف، والسبب ربما يرجع إلى محاولة  تحدي ومواجهة أمريكا.

وهو أمر يراه بعض الساسة؛ بأنه غير مفيد، ولا جدوى منه، مع الإشارة  إلى عدم جدية أمريكا فى ممارسة العقوبات الحاسمة، وتفضل فقط تحجيم الدور الإيراني قليلا، وأحيانا تركها عاملا من عوامل الشد والجذب فى المنطقة.

نضيف أيضا بأن فرنسا وبدعم  ألماني،  حاولت أن تبقى قواتها الرمزية فى الشمال السوري،  وكل ذلك قد حدث بعد إعلان أمريكا المباشرة فى الانسحاب من سورية، وهو ما تم التراجع عنه، وطرح الانسحاب التدريجي أسلوبا بديلا.

إن أوروبا ولو اختصرت فى فرنسا وألمانيا، تحاول أن تمهد للتمرد والخروج من الشرنقة الأمريكية، وفى حال النجاح النسبي لمثل هذا الاختيار السياسي العسكري، فإن امتدادات التمرد يمكن أن تطال دول أخرى مثل اليابان وكوريا الجنوبية غيرهما.

لا تهتم أوروبا بمحاولات إيران التوسع وممارسة الهيمنة على بعض الدول،  واعتماد سياسة مد النفوذ، بل تحاول أن تستخدم إيران لمشاكسة السياسة مع الأمريكية بعد اندفاع أمريكا نحو الانكفاء على نفسها والتنكر لأقرب حلفائها،  فهل هذه هي لحظة البداية لتمرد وانفصال واضح الملامح؟، أم  إنه يصعب على أوروبا أن تسير فى هذا  السياق أسوة بروسيا أو الصين وبغيرها من الدول الصاعدة؟!.

من الصعب اعتبار أوروبا كيانا  سياسيا متحدا، ولا سيما بعد صعود اليمين  فى أكثر من دولة أوروبية، وتراجع شعبية الرئيس الفرنسي “ماكرون”، وقرار السيدة  “ميركل” الانسحاب من الترشح فى ألمانيا السنة القادمة، وعدم اهتمام معظم  الدول الأوربية بمصير أوروبا  الموحدة فى سنواتها القادمة. 

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